16ga.com ~ View topic

I'm pretty sure Larry makes this stuff up to make the rest of us feel bad Laughing

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16GG,
It sounds like you are talking about the stock market in 99. When the "common knowledge" is the prices will continue to climb and items are bought on pure speculation it it time to get out and wait for prices to rationalize.

Now if I can just remember that when I am struck by the "gotta have it's" Rolling Eyes

There is a huge difference between a mass produced double guns and intangible stock shares. You can't create value on paper with shotguns. Some good PR and a well built product will help raise the price a bit by increasing demand, but demand, quality of product, and profitability will ultimately decide how long the market for the item is tenable. They are a specialty item.

Product lifeline pretty much follows the course I indictated in my post. With mass produced double guns, that lifeline is pretty fragile and pretty short. Its a limited market, its very old technology, and the competition can be fierce. Once production ceases, the number made will be finite. If the gun is a reasonably good one, the value will eventually go up depending on condition, and any continued demand. If upland hunting remains popular and game fairly plentiful, that too will sustain demand.

All one has to do is look at the well made, better known, middle and upper middle quality double guns from the last 30 years. None have become passe. all are still in demand. The Browning BSS, SKB 100-400 models, the Miroku/ Daly doubles, Winchester model 23 guns, the reproduction Parkers, Beretta 409 and 700 series, and even some select models from the lesser quality makers like Zabala and the other lesser quality houses have all gone up. Some guns have gone way up. !6 gauge guns are rare to non-existant among them. However, everything indictes that demand for 16 ga guns is continuing to go up. This will most likely continue for at least the next decade if global warming does not ruin our hunting. That is a damned big if right now.

Considering product vs. dollar spent, these CZ guns are cheap right now and the quality is reasonably good IF YOU CHOOSE ONE CAREFULLY. There are a lemons in every production run and that number will go up as production capacity is reached, then stressed. Turkish guns tend to have a few more lemons per batch than other guns made in other nations to begin with. This indicates that quality control is not a top priority yet. That can change, but will take time.

However, these CZ double guns are past the developement stage. They have been on the market for a couple of years. They are becoming a hot item as the word spreads. The best ones are being made now. That will change as demand goes up and then gets glutted, and declines. The quality of the item will pretty much follow that curve. Prices have already gone up. Last year, I could buy a brand new 28 for $700-750. This year, it will take at least $75-100 more. If I want a hand picked one, perhaps another $100.

Some things never change. The same can be said about stocks. Every single one is a potential swindle. Most outsiders can't really tell. At least, I can tell a good shotgun when I'm holding one. I've learned that much over these many years now.

I'll trust my experience with guns over my experience with stocks. I got creamed too in that era. Most folks who were outsiders did. Nothing has changed. There was a lot of hoopla and hot air blown at the problem by the regulatory commissions, a few heads rolled, and then it was back to business as usual. Most folks saw nothing good come of it, nor got any of thier money back. And so it goes.

Now, our government is printing money to cover our mounting war debts. Inflation is just starting to rise. Hold onto your butts. You've not seen anything yet. I've lived through several of these eras too including the oil price increases of the Vietnam era and the recession/depression of the 1970's and early '80s as we struggled to pay for that damned war. Again, nothing has changed. Just the names and faces of the crooks who rig the game. Like the man said, "It's dejavu all over again." Wink

Member Joined: 26 Apr 2005 Posts: 743

Visited a gunshop today, talked to the sharpest doublegun tack in the drawer about sxs. He said he had a "probably new" BSS Sporter 20ga, in the box, in the back room. "I bet you'll put $22-2300 on it!" I suggested. He smiled. "$2795." Of course the BSS Sporter 20 may be just about the hottest "stock" there is right now. I also suggested to him than an SKB 280E 20, same condition, would probably bring $1,000 less. "Maybe even more difference than that," he said.

The reason I reacted as I did to the original post is that to me, even looking at the current market, a Stevens 16 is probably a $450 gun, absolute tops. Likewise, a Hunter Fulton or Lefever Nitro 16 is more like $750, tops--recognizing that you're highly unlikely to find any of these in better than about 95% condition, and such examples are quite rare. And if you're willing to accept somewhat less condition, you can find Ithaca and Elsie 16ga doubles for under $1,000, with a bit of looking.

Some guns, like the BSS, have really undergone severe inflation. Others, equally good ones IMO (like the SKB's), have gone up, but less so. The Parker Repro in 20ga will probably cost you less in 1985 $ today than when it was first offered, at about $2800 if I recall correctly. 28's will be more because there are fewer of them; 12's, fewer yet, but other than the Steel Shot Special, they really haven't appreciated that much because of the greater interest in smallbore sxs--even when the big bore is the rare one (which is exactly the opposite case with classic American doubles, where the smallbore premium is partially due to fewer smallbores out there).

It's a tricky business. Watch the market, and follow 16GG around as he visits widows with nice doubles to sell! Smile

Larry, my friend, I have no arguement with most anything you've said, and you've handled about a gazillion more guns than me, so I always respect your opinion. But I'll say this, somewhat tongue-in-cheek: I have a life beyond shotguns (whew! There, I said it and I'm not sorry!). I don't look for them every day, don't follow up leads, don't have people letting me know about available guns (which I'm guessing you, in your position, do - but I could be wrong). I'll look in the occasional pawn shop, junk shop or other out-of-the-way place (that's how I found nice a Fenwick 5wt 3-piece fly rod), but mostly my sources for guns are gun shops and gun shows, and let's face it: you're rarely gonna find a steal at either of those venues. I'm guessing many of our readers here are the same.

Even out here in Kansas, where the pony express can be be pretty slow bringing the mail, most shop owners and gun show guys know what a gun is worth, or at least what it'll bring if they hang on to it for a while. There's a guy out here who sells Savage 99 rifles (of which I'm a fan), mostly refinished or otherwise tinkered with, for lots more than I'd pay, but he sells 'em. That's not an endorsement for buying anything no matter what, it's just a fact. Plus, he's arrogant about it.

That said, nobody out here in either of those markets is going to sell a Fulton 16ga that you can be into, let alone hunt, for $600, unless it's in a basket. Sorry; just won't happen, unless it's one of those "right place/right time deals" and you mostly have to be on the hunt every day to be there when one of those comes by. I saw a guy with a 12ga fulton; he was asking $1200 (I think). I said I knew a guy who might be interested but it'd have to be some cheaper; he said "Nah; I think I'll just sit on it. I'll get it sooner or later." He probably won't get the grand plus, but he'll get more than my friend was willing to pay.

Won't argue that the Stevens 5100 is a $450 dollar gun (or maybe a bit more, in my limited experience, especially in 16ga, and sounds like Shooter won't have that in it if he decides to fix his up), but I challange you to come out this way, be a casual gun looker, and find a better gun for that money. Nitro Specials are the only thing close (I know you like them, and you and I differ there; just personal opinion), and frankly I don't think you'll find one of those for that either. Not around here, and not unless you're willing to devote more time to it than I can.

Most of us, when we want a gun, aren't willing to wait and search for a year. I'm reminded of Homer Simpson (not a good example, I know; hope there aren't any anti's monitoring this site!); they told him he'd have to wait 5 days to get his gun, and he said "But I'm mad NOW!" Well, when I want a new gun, I don't want to spend months and months looking for it.

So you're right, of course: they're out there. But this is from the perspective of the casual shotgunner/looker. If I find a gun I want, unless it's horribly overpriced, I'd better jump on it. It probably won't be around long, and it might be a long time before I see another like it. Better sign off; this is starting to look like one of 16GG's posts Very Happy

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Fin

Joined: 19 Jun 2004 Posts: 1480 Location: Mpls, MN.

I'm not sure exactly when it happened, but anything in 16 gauge is more expensive than when I first started looking.

Let me make clear right now, all mint 16 gauge 311 and 5100s at $450, I want first crack at. I also know Cabelas whould sure as HELL ask more than that for one. I also don't think a Fulton or a Nitro knows it is a better gun.
Best,
Ted

16gg,
I think you missed the point. mass produced guns in current production have very little investment value. Actually the common guy getting into mass produced guns as a investment is exactly like the speculative stock and housing market. Prices are artificially inflated by speculation and fad, then the consumer market becomes saturated. That is followed by the market collapse.
It is a normal cycle. This one is fueled by the shift in population dynamics.
Baby boomer's have reached a age where they have more disposable income to indulge fantasies of a simpler time (at least we perceive that).
Ergo the sxs/16ga nostalgia.

No, I didn't miss it. I 'm refering to the CZ gun as a shooter, a hunting piece and a 16 gauge one at that. I would not consider it in the collector status. It will probably never get there in our lifetimes. I'm focusing on the quality of these guns vs. the price as things stand right now.

I'm saying the very best ones you will be able to buy over the next 5 years are being made now and have been for the last year. The quality might stay good for another year, then will go into decline. The cost will got up dramatically as the demand increases. If you wait for a couple of years to buy one new, you will pay more and get less. If you hold out for a short while to get a clean used one, you will run the risk of buying a lemon dumped on the market to avoid the hassle of having the gun fixed. double that warning when looking for a 16 ga..

Don't forget that we folks here are very likely the most informed on up to the minute news on whats available, whats new, etc. We are a bit ahead of the curve. There are many more 16 ga. fans out there who have not even heard of this site yet. However, they probably are aware or will be shortly of the CZ 16 double. Throw in the 20 and 28 gauge double fans into the mix. Now ask yourself where can you get a NEW small gauge well made double gun with a warranty, all the modern features, and of a nice proportional weight for under $1000 or even less right now.

AyA, Ugartechea, the Valier, the Weatherby, etc are all at least 2.5 times the price and some much more. Some of these other guns might be slightly better quality wise, but certainly not enough to justify the huge price difference for a shooter, a hunting gun.

On the other side of the equation are the imported offerings from Remington and Marlin plus a few other importers of Russian, Eastern European, and the lesser quality Italian and spanish guns like Zabalas etc.. IMO, the CZ doubles are head and shoulders above these others in every way that counts in a double gun yet the price is actually cheaper than some of the others. Have you seen the Marlin/ LC Smith imports? They are downright ugly IMO compared to the CZ guns, yet are more expensive. no thanks. I'd take the CZ anytime.

Now concider the state of our economy and the huge and still mounting debt we are racking up every day. Like I said, hold onto your butts; you've not seen anything yet. Financially, we are in deep dog doo. The bill has not come due, but will shortly. Oil is going to continue to go up. Due to our debts, the increasing price for oil, the expanding war in the middle East, and the European countries' unwillingness to get involved, the dollar is taking hit after hit and will be worth far less in a year or two.

Iran and Syria keep lighting brushfire wars all over the Middle East. It plays to their ends. The price for oil goes up which puts more money in their coffers, and it strains the purses of the West at the same time. Their buddy for the moment No. Korea is also in on the game. In Iraq, they are winning too. Our position in Iraq is imploding, collapsing around our ears. Either we declare victory and march the hell out now or get ready for a huge shipment of body bags very soon, then come home with our asses whipped again just like Vietnam.

We are overextended now. we can't build up effective troop strength in time. If a draft were called right now, the troops would not be sufficiently trained forat least 18 monthes to 2 years. Send them in green and they will be slaughtered. Our enemies know it and are capitalizing on the situation. That is what Lebanon is all about. they are drawing off our only prepared ally with an effective fighting force and its not costing them a thing. There will be more to come. Count on it. I said earlier we would soon need our troops elsewhere. Now you know why.

As for us Baby Boomers, its too late to worry about us being drafted. so we might as well go hunting to keep our minds off the terrible state of affairs we are now in. All we can do is help pay for the mess. I hope I can hunt, shoot, and work until I'm 75 or better. Retirement is now out of the question. Anyone on a fixed income is screwed unless they have managed to put a bunch back in the past 10 years. Most of us lost our retirement money in the last Stock Market fiasco. So its" I owe, I owe, its off to work I go."

Anyway, and in short, if you want one of these CZ guns for hunting and recreational shooting, now is the time to buy. Hold out for a better deal and you will lose. Pick one carefully, but buy it if you find it. The price will go up and the quality down. That is my point. Investment guns? Not here. not yet. not for many years if ever.

PS: Larry, if you can locate me a new in box/case unfired 28 ga Parker Repro for under $3400, please put a hold on it for me. I'd appreciate it immensely. Thanks

Member Joined: 26 Apr 2005 Posts: 743

Boy . . . I sure wish I had scouts out there, chasing down good doubles for me! What I find happening more often is people emailing me with deals I'd LIKE to find, then asking me whether they really ought to spend $750 on a pristine NID 16ga.

The sad truth is, Iowa ain't big sxs country. I can only think of 3 gunshops I can visit where I know I'll find more than the stray, clapped out sxs--and they're all Scheels stores. And they're an hour, an hour and a half, and 2 hours plus from my house. I've dealt with all of them, but their prices are far from dirt cheap. However, like Cabela's, they do stand behind what they sell.

It's this medium right here, the Internet, that allows us ALL to look at a lot of guns, see what the market's doing, etc. If I have any doubt about the going price of a particular make, model and gauge, and if it's halfway common, I usually check out gunsamerica, plus the doublegun dealers who advertise at gunshop and doublegun. That usually brings me up to speed.

Gun prices do vary from area to area. No Fulton 16's with which you can hunt for under $600? Just bought one (this one marked as a Ranger and sold by Sears, but the dealer knew what it was, as I did) for less than that. There's a little sliver of wood missing from the forend, but other than that, wood is very good, gun is tight, top lever well to the right, very little blue wear, most of the case colors still there. Perfect bores, fits me nicely with a pad someone added. Bought it from a dealer (who now advertises off gunshop) at the UP Shoot. His asking price was under $600, and he treated me well on a trade.

Ted, I'd certainly go $450 for a "mint" 311 or 5100 too, if I wanted one--but the problem is, you don't find them mint, as I said in my earlier post. 95% is going to be pretty rare. And as for a Fulton or a Nitro not knowing it's a better gun . . . well, back when both Stevens and Hunter were making sxs, in 1940 (as well as most of the American classic makers), here were the going prices, all for DT/extractor guns: Iver Johnson Hercules, $35.20; Fulton Hunter Special, $35.10; Fulton, $29.95; Winchester Model 24, $29.72; Fox Model B, $ 26.00; Stevens Model 530 (better gun than the 311, featuring nicely checkered wood and a factory Jostam pad), $24.25. And back then, you have to remember, price competition was really fierce. A Sterlingworth sold for $48.95, an LC Field Grade for $49.00; Ithaca 37 was $43.90, Winchester Model 12 and Remington Model 31 both $43.64. So I'd say even back when it was new, the Fulton did indeed "know" it was a better gun than the Stevens. And having owned several examples of both, I have no doubt myself in making the same comparison.

I see. I though you had said something about holding on to any of these double guns just because the price would go up dramatically in the next 5 to 10 years.

Actually the CZ's and DeHann's (better value IMO) will go up for sure. The factory is already planning price increases. IF and when Turkey enters the EU it will be Katie bar the door on the cost of these 2.

Larry,

Is it possible then that my 3 Stevens 5100's are based on the 530 (which you say is a better gun than the 311), and not the 311? The 16 and the 20 have decently checkered walnut, twin ivory beads, and Jostam pads that seem to be original; the .410 is the same except no pad. The wood to metal fit and overall finish is easily as good as any Nitro I've seen; I've only handled a few Fultons but the Stevens guns seem to compare very favorably to those as well. Plus they all have nicely shaped, traditional-looking trigger guards; the guard on the Nitro looks like it belongs in a tool box, not on a shotgun Very Happy

! To me, these guns just look and feel better than a Nitro, and just as good as the few Fultons I've handled.

So what makes the Fulton (and to you, the Nitro) a better gun? Not trying to pick a fight, just asking. In my admittedly limited experience they seem to weigh, balance and swing about the same. The fit and finish I've already addressed. As for the "guts", I've never had a problem with any of mine, so if the F's & N's are better, it hasn't affected me so far.

Didn't mean to suggest that you have scouts out looking for guns for you Smile

! Wouldn't that be nice? But does someone you know occasionally say "Hey; I got in a _____ you might be interested in" and pull it out to show you? That doesn't happen to me anywhere, becasue I just don't work very hard at it. And Larry, just because you happened to find a Fulton for $500 or whatever, you've got to admit it doesn't happen very often (either that, or maybe the Fulton really isn't a better gun than the Stevens Very Happy

) !

Fin

Member Joined: 26 Apr 2005 Posts: 743

Fin, IMO, Stevens did some unusual things to their guns over the years. To save a couple $--not because wood was short during the war, as is often rumored, since these guns were available at least a couple years before Pearl Harbor--Stevens put plastic "Tenite" stocks on their doubles. You could still get wood, just that it cost more.

One reason I think Fultons and Nitros are better guns has to do with the fact that Stevens quality went downhill throughout the guns' production life. Fultons and Nitros reached the end of the road with WWII; Stevens kept trying to make cheap doubles, and while the prices continued to go up, the general quality went down. Any of the doubles Savage/Stevens made--either the Stevens guns or the Fox B's--are generally better quality, the older you find them. But because they were made for far longer, there are a lot of the newer ones on the market. And the pre-war examples of ANY of the "economy" guns--and that includes Nitros and Fultons, as well as Stevens--require some "sorting" to find a good one, simply because the guns were inexpensive, meant to be used hard, and usually were. So while you'll see more Stevens, you'll also see a higher percentage of poor ones (either condition or quality, or both) than Fultons and Nitros.

We all have our preferences, but between Stevens on one side and Fulton and Nitro on the other, my experience is that the latter two have a much better "feel". I can't ever recall encountering a loose Fulton; can't think of any loose Nitros either. But quite a few loose Stevens. If you get a good Stevens, which is likely to be an older one, they can be OK. And if you like them . . . well, why not?

As for prices, you must be in a hot Fulton market or something! Check the current Cabela's gun list--their Mitchell SD store shows a Hunter Special 20ga (remember, that's an upgrade from a Fulton) for $650. Looks pretty decent. Having a bit of experience with Cabela's, I wouldn't want to offer them $575 cash for that gun unless I wanted to own it.

If your guns are old enough, the Jostam pads may well be original. Many gunmakers used them, and along with the twin ivory beads, would either be an option or else an indication of a better grade gun to start with. I'm not sufficiently sure about Stevens grades/numbers (someone needs to do a good article on them) to say whether a 5100 is better than a 311, although the 5100's I've seen seem to have been better guns--but that may be because the 311 was the gun that survived until the end of the line for Stevens doubles, by which time they were getting pretty shoddy.

Joined: 22 Jul 2006 Posts: 3 Location: lincoln ne

Your gun sounds like a keeper to me. If you want a new stock you could probably change balance at that time. Doesn't sound that far off face although it isn't going to repair itself. All items are able to be done at intervals and not kill your budget. ALTHOUGH I just got lucky on one of the auctio sites and got a Baker Batavia Special with Homotensile barrels for less than 200$.